Marc Kealey Online

My good friend, political mentor and business associate died this past weekend.  As life goes, and for many, having a friend die is normal, but not everyone has a good friend, political mentor and business associate who is a former Prime Minister and one of the most recognizable political figures in modern Canadian history.

I began a close working relationship with John Turner when Mr. Turner was a candidate for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada, became Prime Minister and later the Leader of the Opposition – all commencing in 1984.  I left my role as his advisor in 1990 after fighting two of Canada’s most important elections with him.  It was after the 1988 federal election that I moved on to my own career while he served out the remainder of his term as MP in the House of Commons until 1992.  He then began private life as a corporate lawyer in Toronto.

Since 1993, almost without fail, every Thursday we would meet for lunch.  Either near his office or at the Royal Canadian Military Institute where I am a member.  We would talk about current events and the state of politics globally.  His cause célèbre has always been parliamentary democracy. Even when he was Leader of his Party, he allowed his own caucus to speak freely in the House of Commons on matters they believed were important to them as Members of Parliament without fear of censure or removal from their Party.

Lunch discussion was punctuated with comments about how he believed that political power in Canada had become too centralized – where the Party Leader’s Office was more important and influential than the Member of Parliament.  Often on visits to schools when we travelled together throughout the country, which he did religiously at least once a month for almost three decades, he would take the opportunity to talk to students from elementary age to university about the Magna Carta – which he called “the greatest living document on democracy ever written”.

As context, the Magna Carta was crafted by King John of England in 1215 and decreed that the constituencies across the great land of England should elect their representative(s) and only when they got to Westminster would they elect a Prime Minister to lead the government of the day.  In fact, in 2015, Turner was the co-Chair of the 800^th anniversary of the Magna Carta and took the opportunity to talk about it as a teachable moment.

To students, civics groups or bar associations, he asserted with those steely blue eyes that stared right into the souls of audiences that in Parliament,  “ there are only two votes that matter with respect to confidence – one is the Speech From the Throne, which is policy and the other is the Budget, which is taxation – they  should be the only whipped votes”. He believed that every other vote in parliament should be a free vote and without consequence to the Member of Parliament.

More importantly, Mr. Turner never waivered on his sentiments about the role of the Member of Parliament.  He bristled over the use of the word “back-bencher” and thought it degraded the role.  His admonition about the politicization of the Office of the Prime Minister (or the Leader of a particular party) was that it was a step backwards.  He lectured “members should be able to see the Leader of their Party without notice”. Since 1962 when he first got elected, he fought for parliamentary democracy and even up until he died he lamented that the current political environment is way more politicized and polarized than ever.

At his 90^th birthday party last year in Ottawa – held on Parliament Hill, and co-chaired by this writer, he spoke to hundreds of invited guests including the current Prime Minister and every former Prime Minister, several former and current MPs and many former staffers and media from Ottawa.  It was deemed to be the best political event ever held in Ottawa.

His speech to the assembled crowd was vintage Turner, with gravitas “democracy does not happen by accident, Canada is not a product of the mind but of the heart and if that’s not understood, it just won’t work”.  It would inevitably be the last public event he would do. He said his piece and he left Ottawa in June last year knowing that his legacy was intact.

I will miss my friend John Turner, I will miss our lunches and I will miss his witticisms about politics, “about being transparent, about being forgiving, about understanding and most importantly about enjoying yourself”.  In his larger than life life, he played the role as public property to the best of his ability – even into his 90’s – there are few who can inspire as much as John Turner did and Canadians should celebrate that.  He was my friend, my colleague and my associate, but most of all he IS my spiritual guidance counsellor – he used to say, “Marc I love the writings of St. Augustine who said, for whom God has given some talent, let him give some back”.  Words to live by.

The results of provincial election 2018 changed the province of Ontario forever.  Gone are the governments of Dalton McGuinty – Ontario’s sixth longest serving Premier (after iconic Premiers Mowat, Davis, Frost, Whitney and Robarts) and Kathleen Wynne (who holds the distinction of being Ontario’s first elected female Premier and the tenth longest serving Premier of all 26 Premiers ever elected in the province).

These are great accolades but in 2020 not such great ones to celebrate per se.  The Ontario Liberal Party has held office in the province for a generation  – 2003 to 2018.  This writer has been on record in media during and after Election 2018 admonishing that the Liberal Party should have spent more time celebrating its accomplishments while in Government rather than attacking its opponents.   After all, fifteen years in power is a lifetime and a party with so much promise, authenticity and good fortune seemed to squander it with scandal, terrible political judgement and poor communications.

So here we are one week away from the Ontario Liberal Party’s 2020 Leadership convention and the Party will choose a new leader to help resurrect its fortunes.

There are a few things to consider as this race unfolds;  the Party needs money, it needs more members in the Legislature and it needs a fresh start as a political machine to compete with a formidable opponent in the always unpredictable and politically agile Ontario Progressive Conservative Party.   At present, the Ontario Government (under Premier Doug Ford) appears to be struggling – its polling numbers are low and the Opposition NDP do not appear to be much better.

It is against this backdrop that the Ontario Liberals are heading into this weekend’s leadership race with a lead in the polls even without a named leader.

The leadership race to choose a new leader to replace Kathleen Wynne will be held this weekend in Mississauga, Ontario.  The leadership convention comes after an extensive campaign and at an oddly chosen date – two years before a general election – that apparently aspires to give the new leader an opportunity to rebuild the fortunes of the decimated party – build its financial resources and attract new members.

It appears, too, that there are current MPP’s and a few non-elected members  seeking to take the helm.  The Liberal Party of Ontario is the only Party in the province that elects its leaders by a delegated convention.  This means that each riding association in the province holds mini-conventions, as it were,  to elect delegates to assemble at a convention (this time to be held in Mississauga) to elect its leader.  It is an exciting event because of the element of surprise.

Hearken back to the leadership election in early 2013, the front runner at that convention was Sandra Pupatello, the once mighty Minister of Economic Development and Trade and long-serving MPP from Windsor and one of the best fundraisers for the Party. She was the apparent front-runner but surprisingly lost to Kathleen Wynne on the third ballot.   The rest is history.

Delegated conventions can also be exciting because of the political arm-twisting that occurs on the convention floor. It can also render a final decision that no one might ever suspect.  Case in point -Dalton McGuinty who won the leadership of the Party in 1996 after five grueling ballots.  He was never a front-runner nor did the Party consider his candidacy as serious in that particular race.

So here we are in 2020, with six candidates seeking to be the Leader of the Liberal Party.  Steven DelDuca – the once formidable Minister of Transportation in the previous government and former MPP from Vaughan is leading the pack with a sizeable number of delegates at 1, 174; Michael Coteau – the current MPP from Don Valley East in Toronto and a former Minister in the previous government is in second spot with 371 delegates followed by;  former Liberal candidate in the last election from London Kate Graham – an academic at UWO with support from former Deputy Premier and political heavyweight Deb Matthews has garnered  273 delegates.  Bringing up the rear are Mitzie Hunter, the politically astute MPP from Scarborough-Guildwood and former Minister of Education in the previous Liberal Government who should have had a better showing, but could not translate her extraordinary social media profile into delegates has only 130 going into the convention.  There are two other candidates who between them could not capture even 100 delegates are non-factors in the race.

At first blush it would appear that Mr. DelDuca should be the clear winner based on the 1,171 delegates he and his extraordinary political machine have captured through the Leadership election meetings held in each of the ridings across the province.  But that would not be accurate. The Liberal Party’s leadership convention system elects its leaders based on votes cast by the 16 delegates elected by members in each of the electoral ridings and  ex-officio (those delegates not elected or appointed because of their station in the Party -current MPP, former MPP, federal MP’s, Senators, Party riding association Presidents).  In this ex-officio cohort there are another 640 delegates.

So to win the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party in 2020, the winner must have a 50 percent of the vote plus one – or 1, 363 delegates.  It appears based on this simple math that going into the weekend convention and based on the number of delegates that Mr. DelDuca has, that he is NOT assured of a first ballot win. This is, unless of course, he either has a substantial number of ex-officio delegates in his corner.  This remains to be seen and arm-twisting aside, there are a lot of deals being made even now.

Liberal Party insiders have told this writer that many of the ex-officio delegates may be looking for a new face to lead its Party.  Perhaps a more contrite leader to gain the trust and confidence of voters who openly repudiated the Party of DelDuca, Coteau and Hunter who each had been in the Legislature for a number of years, is what ex-officio and/or undecided delegates may want.  Or perhaps the Party machinery behind DelDuca – which is formidable, organized and masterful, have created a situation where their candidate is so successful in the election of delegates and its campaign that its candidate WILL win on the first ballot and change the course of history for the Party such that it may have a decent chance in the next provincial election in 2022.

Regardless of the outcome, it will be exciting to watch and this writer will be certain to pen a follow up story.    This convention will be historic nonetheless, it may be the last time the province sees a political party elect its leader by delegated convention AND after this weekend, Ontarians will have a Leader of the once mighty Liberal Party whose daunting task it will be to re-build a Party that currently has no money, no Party status and a track record that Ontarians know only all too well.

But leadership campaigns are not about policy – it is all about politics at its human best.  And based on that principle alone, the uphill climb back to government will be daunting and interesting to watch!

The federal election and all its craziness and vitriol are now behind us.  Canada has spoken and it has given the Liberal Party a mandate (sort of) to form a government.  Canadians gave “Team Trudeau” the opportunity to form a minority government meaning that the opposition parties in the collective have more seats than the Party who formed the government.

So, the hard part for Canadians is over. We voted and we spoke! And Canadians spoke loudly!!  In fact, the outcome of Election 43 gave us back Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister, but not like he was in 2015.  Gone are the selfies, the sunny ways, the virtue signaling and in its place is a legacy of apparent divisiveness and anger heretofore unseen in Canada.

In the weeks following the conclusion of Election 43, I’ve heard pundits and social media warriors suggest that the Liberal Party does not have the moral authority to form a government in Canada, because they did not win the popular vote.  Yes, the facts weigh out, the Conservative Party of Canada received more popular vote than the Liberals and although that may be true, it means nothing! We simply don’t elect governments in Canada by virtue of who gets the popular vote!  The way government are formed in Canada is by the number(s) of seats a Party attains through a first past the post voting process.  The Liberal Party garnered the most seats and therefore can form government.  Enough said!

So, by the time this little screed gets read, Prime Minister Trudeau’s Cabinet has been sworn in and the Parliament of Canada is officially back in session in Ottawa.  The Government’s Speech from the Throne will have been delivered and we’ll know what the plan is for this Government and this 43^rd parliamentary session.

Many political observers, pundits, social media wizards and those in media have suggested Canada might be in for a rough ride in the coming years.  Western alienation, they say, has produced a political movement there,  Quebec nationalism, they say, is on the rise and the climate change agenda remains the single biggest issue to face Canadians.

For this political observer, with this Cabinet I think the country will be just fine!  Let me explain.

If we believe everything we read on social media, this is the worst Cabinet ever!  Some say the Cabinet is too big, some say it’s too politically correct with 18 men and 18 women and therefore not merit based,  others say the west is shut out while still others say Ontario and Quebec will now get everything because the lion’s share of Liberal seats are there.

Consider too, however, that the opposition parties, who actually outnumber the government, will now have a role to play to ensure that Justin Trudeau’s government performs effectively for ALL Canadians because, as we know, governments serve ALL Canadians and not just those who voted for them.  And, I submit too,  they have a long row to hoe to do well as an effective opposition.  The Conservatives have a leader on the ropes, the NDP have no money and therefore no ability to attract attention, the Bloc is seemingly happy in its new role as power-broker and the Greens and Independents are –  there!

So, here’s the thing.  The Liberal government’s executive council is not as bad as social media seems to be spewing and media and political observers have parsed the appointments as if the very composition of the Cabinet determines the future pathway for Canada. Here’s the reality, the composition of a Cabinet is a tough job for the Leader of a Government.  Region, gender, race, creed, and every other aspect of Canadiana MUST be included to make an executive council truly reflective of our great nation.  We expect that as Canadians.  This Cabinet IS reflective of Canada in a profound way, with the exception of not having representation in Alberta or Saskatchewan.  And that glaring dearth is likely the most problematic issue facing the Prime Minister and his Government going forward. Those two provinces in particular are critical to stability in Canada given the apparent increase in alienation and the massive support for the oil industry and pipelines.

That notwithstanding, I think the Prime Minister has appointed an executive Council whose collective stewardship will address the challenges we face as a nation and , I venture to say, we may have stable minority government for the coming years – based on the actions of this government and the circumstances facing the opposition parties.

Juxtaposed against the politics played in the mid-2000’s when Canada was governed with minority Governments who basically did nothing of substance – except politics – we have a Government whose culture is activist.  Even now, the government is seemingly prepared to do the work that needs to get done.  Because, in 2019, the political agenda cannot be ignored.

At the centre of the agenda is climate change AND economic prosperity (and that will include building pipelines)- a political dance that takes the likes of deft political tactician(s) to resolve.  The Prime Minister who had been criticized for being too hands on with respect to every policy file of his Government, in effect, has appointed very good stewards to Cabinet – roles to manage the dance and do the job(s) that need to get done.

Unlike the United States, Cabinet Ministers in Canada must be elected to serve.  It’s against that backdrop that I offer a few highlights on how Trudeau’s Cabinet will fare.

Moving Chrystia Freeland out of Global Affairs and into the role of Intergovernmental Affairs is a stroke of brilliance – she has proven herself to be an effective negotiator and her style and presence are calming. The honourific as Deputy Prime Minister will serve her well when she interfaces with Premiers – especially those in the west.  Look for a well-crafted plan to have the much-needed buy-in from the provinces for the pipeline project that WILL be implemented.  Look for her to also engage effectively with the opposition in the House of Commons for support.

Keeping Bill Morneau in Finance is a signal that the bureaucracy and “the street” have confidence in his ability to be the steward of Canada’s economy.  His big challenge is going to be re-building confidence in the middle class who appear to be dogged by CRA at every turn.  Look for Morneau to spend more time looking to create a foreign investment environment and associated opportunity for Canadian business to flourish.  He will need to work the phones with his Cabinet colleagues, the opposition and international organizations to continue to be successful.

The shift Catherine McKenna endured from environment to infrastructure is not by accident.  Her assertive style and her inimitable ability to create alliances will serve the government well as it deftly moves from the sustainable and traditional resource-based economy toward building green jobs and the new economy. She has the right temperament and massive appeal – she’ll do well.

David Lametti is likely the most intellectual in Cabinet. At a time when the Prime Minister needs to rely on stability – he gets it in spades with Lametti as the Minister of Justice and Attorney General.  He understands the subtlest of nuances related to the law, but the Constitution is a fluid entity requiring a strategic and knowledgeable steward to ensure it gets the attention it deserves. Niagara Region is originally his home so I’m biased – not bad for a boy from Port!  But look for good things from him.

Seamus O’Reagan is an unusual appointment to Natural Resources Canada in this writer’s opinion.  Ideally the role at NRCAn is suited for a MP from the north or the west where natural resource management is bred in their DNA.  He is from Newfoundland – albeit a province with a rich off-shore oil industry- but I think the Prime Minister is taking a chance putting him in the role to deliver on the promise of natural resource economies being preserved in Alberta.  Look for his role to be tough in the early going.

Filomena Tassi, Hamilton MP comes into her second term with an increased role to play in Cabinet.  As Minister of Labour, she’ll have to steer the labour unrest in the rail industry as well as manoeuvre with her other cabinet colleagues on delivering on the promise of jobs in western Canada.  Her strength of character is a strong suit – look for her to do well in the role.

Vancouver based Jonathan Wilkiinson has been boosted to Environment and many think that because he’s a BC MP, he’ll cow-tow to special interest against the pipelines.  Not so, I think his strong record in the private sector dealing with First Nations and in the innovative green industry will serve him well.

Francois-Phillipe Champagne has big shoes to fill as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs.  BUT, remember, he was a sort of under-study to Chrystia Freeland in the last government.  Plus, he’s a brilliant team player and likeable – look for him to do well in the role – especially as Canada strives to deliver on the new ‘NAFTA’ and other trade deals globally.

Patty Hajdu as Minister of Health is another interesting choice.  Consider though that she is from Thunder Bay and innovation and integration are not buzz-words there – they are the reality of that environment.  Look for her to bring a lot of that inspiration to the role – especially that she has to consider the “Pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance” at time when provinces are more cantankerous than ever.

Marie-Claude Bibeau is the new Minister of Agriculture.  She’s inherited a ministry that has been male dominated.  Look for her to bring a kinder-gentler atmosphere and the possibility of helping to re-invigorate the sector.  Her international experience will serve her well – plus she has an extraordinary network to help.

Mona Fortier is perhaps the single most head-scratching appointment.  Her entrée to the role (from her CBC interview) made Canadians light up on social media – she could barely describe what being Minister for the Middle Class meant.  But let’s consider this – she’s associate Minister of Finance – and that gives her the ability to re-calibrate from a disastrous introduction to re-working the file with her Minister (Morneau) to build the kind of confidence the Government has been asking Canadians to accept since they were elected.

That’s a glimpse of that we can expect from this Cabinet in the months and years ahead. Oh sure, social media will have its expected field day hammering at Trudeau and his gunsills,  but if the Government does its job well and condenses the noise and nonsense we may finally see good and effective government.  And that’s what Canadians voted for!!